444 3rd Ave

Deer Trail, CO 80105

$99,995C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $197/mo
• Annual: $2,362/yr
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.44%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $27,999

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $819 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#337 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Deer Trail School District No. 26J (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #161 of 176 in CO (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Deer Trail Elementary School (math 24% / reading 15%, grade F, #694 of 966 statewide, top 73%, 175 students, 40% FRL); Deer Trail Junior-Senior High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #375 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 150 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 3,927 units permitted in Arapahoe County in 2024 (1,525 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arapahoe County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.