10 Roth Ave

Mertztown, PA 19539

$44,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$790
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $424/mo
• Annual: $5,082/yr
• Cap rate: 17.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.43%
• DSCR: 2.80
• 1% rule: 4.34%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#978 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Brandywine Heights Area SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #241 of 658 in PA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 258 units permitted in Berks County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berks County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $45k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.