10 Roth Ave · Mertztown, PA 19539

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1991 $47/sqft · 81% below area $790/mo HOA · 41% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Country View in Brandywine Heights School District, nestled in the peaceful community of Mertztown. Offering two spacious bedrooms and comfortable living spaces, this well-maintained residence provides an ideal setting for comfortable everyday living. Recent updates enhance peace of mind and efficiency, including a BRAND NEW (full) oil tank and new windows. Outside, a convenient 12' x 12' utility shed offers ample space for storage, tools, or seasonal items, keeping the property organized and clutter-free.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Utility shed
• New windows

Tags

• RECENT UPDATES
• NEW WINDOWS
• UTILITY SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#978 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Brandywine Heights Area SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #241 of 658 in PA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 258 units permitted in Berks County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berks County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $45k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.43%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,818
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -81.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Roth Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (-3%)	6mo	$45,000	$49	81
41 Roth Ave	0.13mi	2/2.0	924 (-3%)	11mo	$85,000	$92	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $20,224
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $54,479
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19539

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $874/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$790
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,414

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $449	-5% $436	+0% $424	+5% $411	+10% $398
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $347	+0% $424	+5% $501	+10% $578
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $435	base $424	+0.5pp $412	+1.0pp $400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 Barclay St Mertztown, PA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,950	$1.95	44d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $790 · $9,480/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $44,900 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   Welcome to Country View in Brandywine Heights School District, nestled in the peaceful community of Mertztown. Offering two spacious bedrooms and comfortable living spaces, this well-maintained residence provides an ideal setting for comfortable everyday living. Recent updates enhance peace of mind and efficiency, including a BRAND NEW (full) oil tank and new windows. Outside, a convenient 12' x 12' utility shed offers ample space for storage, tools, or seasonal items, keeping the property organized and clutter-free.

2. 2026-04-03
   listed $49,900 Active 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   Welcome to Country View in Brandywine Heights School District, nestled in the peaceful community of Mertztown. Offering two spacious bedrooms and comfortable living spaces, this well-maintained residence provides an ideal setting for comfortable everyday living. Recent updates enhance peace of mind and efficiency, including a BRAND NEW (full) oil tank and new windows. Outside, a convenient 12' x 12' utility shed offers ample space for storage, tools, or seasonal items, keeping the property organized and clutter-free.

3. 2026-04-03
   listed $49,900 Active 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   Welcome to Country View in Brandywine Heights School District, nestled in the peaceful community of Mertztown. Offering two spacious bedrooms and comfortable living spaces, this well-maintained residence provides an ideal setting for comfortable everyday living. Recent updates enhance peace of mind and efficiency, including a BRAND NEW (full) oil tank and new windows. Outside, a convenient 12' x 12' utility shed offers ample space for storage, tools, or seasonal items, keeping the property organized and clutter-free.

4. 2004-07-30
   soldstatus $20,000
5. 2004-04-15
   listed $17,000
6. 2004-04-10
   historical
7. 2003-12-11
   listed $24,900
8. 2003-12-10
   historical
9. 2003-09-09
   listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$874
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − HOA: −$9,480
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $5,257
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,262
• After-tax cash flow: $3,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brandywine Heights Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4204050
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,904
• Composite: 51.52/100
• National rank: #3670
• State rank: #241 of 658 in PA

Livability — Mertztown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #978
• US rank: #10699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,112

Population outlook (Berks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 425,767 people
• By 2030: 428,814 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 433,463 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 439,426 · +3.2%
• By 2075: 478,647 · +12.4%
• By 2100: 518,507 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 9% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Berks

• 2024 margin: R (+12.2) · D 43.4% · R 55.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+10.2 2012: R+0.6 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.38%
• Current HPI: 269.7792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+80.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $44,900 GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $49,900 GLVRMLS
• 2004-07-30 Sold (MLS) $20,000 GLVRMLS
• 2004-04-15 Listed $17,000 GLVRMLS
• 2004-04-10 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2003-12-11 Listed $24,900 GLVRMLS
• 2003-12-10 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2003-09-09 Listed $24,900 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $874 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.