102 Willow St

Lipscomb, TX 79056

$160,000D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,210 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,296/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-982/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-982/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#760 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Canadian ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #229 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.
• Lipscomb County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.