102 Willow St · Lipscomb, TX 79056

$160,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,210 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

0.70 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the quiet rural town of Lipscomb, Texas, this spacious home sits on a large lot and offers endless potential. The property includes a two-car garage, with one bay currently used for storage, plus a generator for added reliability. Inside, the home boasts extensive built-in storage, including stunning custom shelving in the dining room and abundant cabinetry in the kitchen. The vintage kitchen features solid wood cabinets, retro countertops, and classic charm. The spacious living areas provide flexibility for any lifestyle, while the large lot offers room to enjoy the peaceful surroundings. With small-town charm, practical amenities, and plenty of storage, this home is a fantastic opportunity for anyone looking to enjoy rural living with space to grow.

Key facts

• Built in storage
• Solid wood cabinets
• Custom shelving

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• BUILT IN STORAGE
• CUSTOM SHELVING
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-982/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#760 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Canadian ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #229 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lipscomb County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $129,604 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $14,081
• Equity at exit: $71,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $57,484
• Equity at exit: $110,873

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79056

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $148,156

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    listed $160,000 Active 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Nestled in the quiet rural town of Lipscomb, Texas, this spacious home sits on a large lot and offers endless potential. The property includes a two-car garage, with one bay currently used for storage, plus a generator for added reliability. Inside, the home boasts extensive built-in storage, including stunning custom shelving in the dining room and abundant cabinetry in the kitchen. The vintage kitchen features solid wood cabinets, retro countertops, and classic charm. The spacious living areas provide flexibility for any lifestyle, while the large lot offers room to enjoy the peaceful surroundings. With small-town charm, practical amenities, and plenty of storage, this home is a fantastic opportunity for anyone looking to enjoy rural living with space to grow.

16. 2025-05-30
    price $199,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,753
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$901
• After-tax cash flow: $-82/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canadian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,018
• Composite: 40.23/100
• National rank: #3776
• State rank: #229 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lipscomb

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #760
• US rank: #13941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lipscomb, TX
• Population (ZIP): 99

Population outlook (Lipscomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,045 people
• By 2030: 4,275 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 4,723 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 5,121 · +26.6%
• By 2075: 5,959 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 6,040 · +49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Slovak 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lipscomb

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.6) · D 9.8% · R 89.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -74.7pp · 2024: -79.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.6 2020: R+79.4 2016: R+77.5 2012: R+79.2 2008: R+74.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $160,000 AARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $199,500 AARMLS