3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,448 sqft ·
Built 1978
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 132 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,095/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,563
Tax + insurance
−$221
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$440
Net cashflow
$-129/mo
Annual
$-1,542/yr
Cap rate
5.78%
Cash-on-cash
-1.85%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$83,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (7.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (29.7% below list).
It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $210k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#443 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Glendale-Kenly Elementary (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #618 of 1,410 statewide, top 44%, 472 students, 68% FRL); North Johnston Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 600 students, 72% FRL); North Johnston High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 787 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $161k; list at $298k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29