802 Creech Church Rd · Micro, NC 27542

$298,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1978 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Ranch on an Acre with upgrades galore! Custom kitchen is bright and open with granite countertops, tile backsplash and stainless steel appliances. Wide plank LVP throughout main living areas; PLUSH carpet and new interior/exterior paint. Primary Retreat with HUGE walk in tiled shower. Move in and Enjoy!

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Wide plank lvp
• Granite countertops

Tags

• RANCH ON AN ACRE
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WIDE PLANK LVP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#443 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Glendale-Kenly Elementary (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #618 of 1,410 statewide, top 44%, 472 students, 68% FRL); North Johnston Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 600 students, 72% FRL); North Johnston High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 787 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $161k; list at $298k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,500 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $153,975
• Equity at exit: $268,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $459,593
• Equity at exit: $578,948

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27542

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,160/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,258

Max offer price $275,295

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
802 Creech Church Rd Kenly, NC	3.0	2.0	1453	$2,095	$1.44	2d	1	0.01mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-01-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-09
   price $298,000
3. 2025-12-04
   price $299,000
4. 2025-11-14
   price $300,000
5. 2025-11-08
   price $304,900
6. 2025-10-16
   price $308,000
7. 2025-10-03
   price $309,000
8. 2025-09-11
   listed $310,000 Active
9. 2025-09-10
   historical
10. 2025-08-26
    listed $2,095
11. 2025-08-21
    price $314,000
12. 2025-08-01
    price $315,000
13. 2025-07-11
    price $317,800
14. 2025-07-03
    price $318,800
15. 2025-06-27
    price $318,900
16. 2025-06-13
    listed $319,900 Active
17. 2025-04-04
    soldstatus $161,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,444 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,284/yr (+$107/mo · 110.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$1,160
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$6,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,655
• After-tax cash flow: $112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Micro

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #16289

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 788
• Population (ZIP): 9,441

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Serbian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.03%
• Current HPI: 280.6408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+85.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $298,000 TMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $299,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $300,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $304,900 TMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $308,000 TMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $309,000 TMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $310,000 TMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed for Rent $2,095 RENTLY
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $314,000 TMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $315,000 TMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $317,800 TMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $318,800 TMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $318,900 TMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $319,900 TMLS
• 2025-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $161,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,160 · +30.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.