11421 Burlwood Dr

La Pine, OR 97739

$124,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Pending · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,126/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $849/mo
• Annual: $10,190/yr
• Cap rate: 14.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.14%
• DSCR: 2.30
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#300 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gilchrist Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 132 students, 75% FRL); Gilchrist Junior/Senior High School (math 5% / reading 10%, grade F, #143 of 143 statewide, top 100%, 104 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 29% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Klamath County SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $125k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.9% in La Pine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.