11421 Burlwood Dr · La Pine, OR 97739

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · Other public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1960 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Acres in Sun Forest Estates. Two Separate Tax Lots. Cabin could be used for a Get Away or Stay in it while you build a Home, would require some TLC. Cabin does have electric, water and septic.

Key facts

• Towering pines
• Rustic cabin
• Natural beauty

Tags

• RUSTIC CABIN
• TOWERING PINES
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS
• NATURAL BEAUTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.9% in La Pine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#300 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gilchrist Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 132 students, 75% FRL); Gilchrist Junior/Senior High School (math 5% / reading 10%, grade F, #143 of 143 statewide, top 100%, 104 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 29% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Klamath County SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $125k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.14%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $33,857
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $99,173
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97739

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,476/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-23
   price $124,900
3. 2025-10-30
   listed $149,900 Active
4. 2025-10-30
   historical
5. 2025-05-15
   listed $474,900 Active
6. 2017-11-09
   soldstatus $59,900 Sold 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   2 Acres in Sun Forest Estates. Two Separate Tax Lots. Cabin could be used for a Get Away or Stay in it while you build a Home, would require some TLC. Cabin does have electric, water and septic.

7. 2017-11-09
   soldstatus $59,900

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   2 Acres in Sun Forest Estates. Two Separate Tax Lots. Cabin could be used for a Get Away or Stay in it while you build a Home, would require some TLC. Cabin does have electric, water and septic.

8. 2017-10-13
   status Pending 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   2 Acres in Sun Forest Estates. Two Separate Tax Lots. Cabin could be used for a Get Away or Stay in it while you build a Home, would require some TLC. Cabin does have electric, water and septic.

9. 2017-09-15
   listed $59,900 Active 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   2 Acres in Sun Forest Estates. Two Separate Tax Lots. Cabin could be used for a Get Away or Stay in it while you build a Home, would require some TLC. Cabin does have electric, water and septic.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,476
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $8,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,087
• After-tax cash flow: $8,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klamath County SD
• NCES district ID: 4107020
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,906
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7593
• State rank: #46 of 58 in OR

Livability — La Pine

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #20040

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Deschutes County · 197,892 people
• City population: 13,183
• Metro: Bend, OR
• Population (ZIP): 13,183
• Household income: $58,579
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 426.0

Population outlook (Klamath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,870 people
• By 2030: 62,279 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 58,891 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 56,207 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 51,239 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 46,526 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Klamath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.9) · D 27.9% · R 69.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.9 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.28%
• Current HPI: 585.9229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bend, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+108.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — MLSCO
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $124,900 MLSCO
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-10-30 Listed $149,900 MLSCO
• 2025-05-15 Listed $474,900 MLSCO
• 2017-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2017-11-09 Sold (MLS) $59,900 MLSCO
• 2017-10-13 Pending — MLSCO
• 2017-09-15 Listed $59,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,476 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.