153 Fairway Dr

Lake Placid, FL 33852

$129,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 964 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,435/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-282/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-282/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (3.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#525 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lake Country Elementary School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 685 students, 73% FRL); Lake Placid Middle School (math 42% / reading 33%, grade F, #395 of 571 statewide, top 70%, 621 students, 75% FRL); Lake Placid High School (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 868 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1495 active listings in the ZIP; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Placid — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?