12616 University Ave NW

Coon Rapids, MN 55448

$190,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · Built 1989 · Condo · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,916/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$329
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-61/mo
• Annual: $-737/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-737/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (5.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in MN, #390 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sand Creek Elementary (math 60% / reading 55%, grade C+, #261 of 857 statewide, top 31%, 601 students, 52% FRL); Northdale Middle (math 40% / reading 55%, grade C-, #93 of 258 statewide, top 37%, 1,274 students, 46% FRL); Blaine High School (math 46% / reading 67%, grade C, #77 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 2,969 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 24% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Coon Rapids — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?