12616 University Ave NW · Coon Rapids, MN 55448

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · Condo public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1989 $329/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to easy, comfortable living in this well-cared-for 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome in Coon Rapids. The main level offers a warm and inviting feel with updated hard-surface flooring, painted cabinetry, and a layout that makes everyday life simple and functional. Just off the living room, the glass front door opens up to a rare view of expansive green space, creating a peaceful backdrop that feels hard to find in townhome living. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms, a full bath, upper-level laundry, and a walk-in closet for added convenience. With a main-level powder bath, attached single-stall garage, storage shelving, and thoughtful updates throughout, this home offers a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle with space to truly make your own.

Key facts

• $329 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-737/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (5.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Coon Rapids — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in MN, #390 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sand Creek Elementary (math 60% / reading 55%, grade C+, #261 of 857 statewide, top 31%, 601 students, 52% FRL); Northdale Middle (math 40% / reading 55%, grade C-, #93 of 258 statewide, top 37%, 1,274 students, 46% FRL); Blaine High School (math 46% / reading 67%, grade C, #77 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 2,969 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 24% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $172,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-34,508
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-34,312
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55448

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,050/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$329
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $179,154

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $-8	+0% $-61	+5% $-115	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-137	+0% $-61	+5% $14	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-13	base $-61	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
370 125th Ave NE Blaine, MN	1.0	1.0	929	$2,188	$2.36	0d	18	0.46mi
12373 Oak Park Blvd NE Blaine, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$1,776	$1.74	0d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $329 · $3,948/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    price $190,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to easy, comfortable living in this well-cared-for 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome in Coon Rapids. The main level offers a warm and inviting feel with updated hard-surface flooring, painted cabinetry, and a layout that makes everyday life simple and functional. Just off the living room, the glass front door opens up to a rare view of expansive green space, creating a peaceful backdrop that feels hard to find in townhome living. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms, a full bath, upper-level laundry, and a walk-in closet for added convenience. With a main-level powder bath, attached single-stall garage, storage shelving, and thoughtful updates throughout, this home offers a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle with space to truly make your own.

17. 2026-03-22
    listed $195,000 Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to easy, comfortable living in this well-cared-for 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome in Coon Rapids. The main level offers a warm and inviting feel with updated hard-surface flooring, painted cabinetry, and a layout that makes everyday life simple and functional. Just off the living room, the glass front door opens up to a rare view of expansive green space, creating a peaceful backdrop that feels hard to find in townhome living. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms, a full bath, upper-level laundry, and a walk-in closet for added convenience. With a main-level powder bath, attached single-stall garage, storage shelving, and thoughtful updates throughout, this home offers a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle with space to truly make your own.

18. 2026-03-21
    historical $195,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    Welcome home to easy, comfortable living in this well-cared-for 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome in Coon Rapids. The main level offers a warm and inviting feel with updated hard-surface flooring, painted cabinetry, and a layout that makes everyday life simple and functional. Just off the living room, the glass front door opens up to a rare view of expansive green space, creating a peaceful backdrop that feels hard to find in townhome living. Upstairs, you’ll find two bedrooms, a full bath, upper-level laundry, and a walk-in closet for added convenience. With a main-level powder bath, attached single-stall garage, storage shelving, and thoughtful updates throughout, this home offers a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle with space to truly make your own.

19. 2025-02-10
    historical $1,625
20. 2025-02-02
    listed $1,625
21. 2024-06-16
    historical $1,585
22. 2024-06-08
    listed $1,585
23. 2020-11-30
    soldstatus $145,000
24. 2020-11-23
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold
25. 2020-10-15
    status Pending
26. 2020-10-15
    listed $145,000 Active
27. 2014-09-12
    soldstatus $78,229 Sold
28. 2014-09-12
    soldstatus $78,229
29. 2014-09-12
    soldstatus $78,229
30. 2014-08-25
    status Pending
31. 2014-08-24
    historical Contingent - Inspection
32. 2014-08-11
    status Active
33. 2014-08-05
    status Pending
34. 2014-08-05
    historical Contingent - Other
35. 2014-07-18
    price $89,900
36. 2014-07-14
    price $92,000
37. 2014-07-07
    price $94,000
38. 2014-07-03
    listed $194,000 Active
39. 2014-07-03
    listed $89,900
40. 2014-07-03
    listed $89,900
41. 2003-03-13
    soldstatus $124,000
42. 2003-02-27
    soldstatus $124,000
43. 2003-01-21
    historical
44. 2003-01-21
    listed $124,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,089 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,050
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − HOA: −$3,948
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$912
• After-tax cash flow: $175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Coon Rapids

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #390

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coon Rapids, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 63,468
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 29,005
• Household income: $103,461
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.29%
• Current HPI: 254.7687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+53.2% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $190,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Listed $195,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Coming Soon $195,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-10 Rental Removed $1,625 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-02-02 Listed for Rent $1,625 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-06-16 Rental Removed $1,585 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-06-08 Listed for Rent $1,585 TURBOTENANT
• 2020-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-23 Sold (MLS) $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-15 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-15 Listed $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-12 Sold (MLS) $78,229 LSAR
• 2014-09-12 Sold (MLS) $78,229 RASM
• 2014-09-12 Sold (MLS) $78,229 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-25 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-24 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-11 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-05 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-18 Price Changed $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-14 Price Changed $92,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-07 Price Changed $94,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-03 Listed $194,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-03 Listed $89,900 LSAR
• 2014-07-03 Listed $89,900 RASM
• 2003-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-27 Sold (MLS) $124,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-21 Listed $124,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-21 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,050 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.