880 Sellers Rd

Baxley, GA 31513

$159,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,826 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 268 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,249/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-407/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-407/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (21.4% below list).
• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#416 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Appling County (town): math 35% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #84 of 174 in GA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Altamaha Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 380 students, 80% FRL); Appling County Middle School (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #221 of 470 statewide, top 48%, 713 students, 80% FRL); Appling County High School (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #175 of 424 statewide, top 42%, 1,060 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Appling County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Appling County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Baxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.