880 Sellers Rd · Baxley, GA 31513

$159,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 268 Days on market

Built 1920 3.37 ac lot $87/sqft · 25% below area Est $212k · 25% under ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has so much character and can be renovated to show its true beauty. Not many like this anymore.

Key facts

• 3.37 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 268 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-407/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Baxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#416 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Appling County (town): math 35% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #84 of 174 in GA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Altamaha Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 380 students, 80% FRL); Appling County Middle School (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #221 of 470 statewide, top 48%, 713 students, 80% FRL); Appling County High School (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #175 of 424 statewide, top 42%, 1,060 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Appling County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Appling County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,940 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,882
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -24.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-27,956
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-27,246
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31513

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,451/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,292

Max offer price $153,002

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $11	+0% $-34	+5% $-79	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-83	+0% $-34	+5% $15	+10% $65
Rate	-1.0pp $46	-0.5pp $6	base $-34	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Under Contract 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   This home has so much character and can be renovated to show its true beauty. Not many like this anymore.

2. 2026-01-21
   status Back On Market 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   This home has so much character and can be renovated to show its true beauty. Not many like this anymore.

3. 2026-01-19
   historical 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   This home has so much character and can be renovated to show its true beauty. Not many like this anymore.

4. 2025-12-08
   price $159,000 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   This home has so much character and can be renovated to show its true beauty. Not many like this anymore.

5. 2025-11-14
   price $169,000 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   This home has so much character and can be renovated to show its true beauty. Not many like this anymore.

6. 2025-09-17
   price $179,900 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   This home has so much character and can be renovated to show its true beauty. Not many like this anymore.

7. 2025-09-09
   price $184,900 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   This home has so much character and can be renovated to show its true beauty. Not many like this anymore.

8. 2025-07-23
   listed $199,000 New 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   This home has so much character and can be renovated to show its true beauty. Not many like this anymore.

9. 2023-10-27
   soldstatus $139,900 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   (Imported from ABBR ListingId 20998) Always dreamed of a farmhouse on a little land? This is it. A precious 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Farmhouse on 3.37 Acres just waiting for you to usher it into your family. This well-loved family home needs some TLC, but offers

10. 2023-10-27
    soldstatus $139,900

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    (Imported from ABBR ListingId 20998) Always dreamed of a farmhouse on a little land? This is it. A precious 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Farmhouse on 3.37 Acres just waiting for you to usher it into your family. This well-loved family home needs some TLC, but offers

11. 2023-09-08
    listed $139,900 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    (Imported from ABBR ListingId 20998) Always dreamed of a farmhouse on a little land? This is it. A precious 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Farmhouse on 3.37 Acres just waiting for you to usher it into your family. This well-loved family home needs some TLC, but offers

12. 2020-02-12
    historical
13. 2019-08-12
    listed $317,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$12/yr (+$1/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,451
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$3,184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$764
• After-tax cash flow: $357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Appling County
• NCES district ID: 1300060
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,536
• Composite: 27.02/100
• National rank: #7056
• State rank: #84 of 174 in GA

Livability — Baxley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #20537

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,941
• Population (ZIP): 15,941

Population outlook (Appling County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,311 people
• By 2030: 18,130 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 17,650 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 16,788 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 14,406 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 10,443 · -43.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Appling

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.4) · D 18.7% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -62.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.4 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+57.9 2012: R+49.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.21%
• Current HPI: 194.6928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-49.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $159,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $169,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $184,900 GAMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2023-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 2023-10-27 Sold (MLS) $139,900 GAMLS
• 2023-09-08 Listed $139,900 GAMLS
• 2020-02-12 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2019-08-12 Listed $317,500 GAMLS

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,451 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.