839 Conklin Hill Rd

Callicoon, NY 18415

$399,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$548
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-270/mo
• Annual: $-3,244/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,135 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne Highlands SD (town): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #115 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Damascus Area Sch (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B+, #202 of 1,518 statewide, top 15%, 275 students, 41% FRL); Wayne Highlands Ms (math 37% / reading 65%, grade C, #116 of 512 statewide, top 24%, 376 students, 46% FRL); Honesdale Hs (math 72% / reading 24%, grade D, #153 of 437 statewide, top 37%, 697 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.