839 Conklin Hill Rd · Callicoon, NY 18415

$399,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2004 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A rare find! This well-maintained 4 BR/2bath ranch home sits on 10 private acres in lovely Damascus, PA. This is a nature's lover paradise! The owner thoughtfully sited the home away from the road, for ultimate privacy. This provides a perfect viewing area to watch the birds and wildlife out your front window. The lawn has about an acre of cleared land; the rest is wooded with nice walking trails throughout. What a bonus: the property contains a historic bluestone quarry, which provided much of the stone for the St Joseph's Seminary in nearby Callicoon (now the Job Corps). Gorgeous wood floors throughout much of the home. There's a nice separation of the primary wing, located on one side of

Key facts

• Private acres
• Covered front porch
• 10 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• HISTORIC BLUESTONE QUARRY
• WOODED WALKING TRAILS
• WHOLE-HOUSE GENERATOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DELAWARE RIVER ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,135 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne Highlands SD (town): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #115 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Damascus Area Sch (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B+, #202 of 1,518 statewide, top 15%, 275 students, 41% FRL); Wayne Highlands Ms (math 37% / reading 65%, grade C, #116 of 512 statewide, top 24%, 376 students, 46% FRL); Honesdale Hs (math 72% / reading 24%, grade D, #153 of 437 statewide, top 37%, 697 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $300,000 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $80,309
• Equity at exit: $232,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $255,146
• Equity at exit: $405,501

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18415

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$382 /mo · $4,580/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,342

Max offer price $351,242

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-44	-5% $-157	+0% $-270	+5% $-383	+10% $-496
Rent	-10% $-507	-5% $-389	+0% $-270	+5% $-152	+10% $-33
Rate	-1.0pp $-69	-0.5pp $-169	base $-270	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-479

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22 Mill St Callicoon, NY	3.0	2.0	1470	$3,000	$2.04	45d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   listed $399,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,580 · $382/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,662 · $472/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,081/yr (+$90/mo · 23.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$4,580
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$10,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne Highlands SD
• NCES district ID: 4224970
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,476
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2292
• State rank: #115 of 539 in PA

Livability — Callicoon

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1135
• US rank: #23427

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,242

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Danish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Current HPI: 350.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $399,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,580 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.