8022 Timberlake Rd #12

Lynchburg, VA 24502

$154,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1989 · Townhouse · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$140
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-303/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-303/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (12.0% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 475 students, 90% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $155k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.