8022 Timberlake Rd #12 · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$154,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Townhouse public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1989 1,220 sqft lot Est $158k · at est. $140/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great townhouse in Knollwood, right off Timberlake! Main level washer/dryer. Monthly association dues cover exterior maintenance, lawn care, trash, water and snow removal.

Key facts

• New carpet
• Freshly painted
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• NEW LVP FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• HEATING AND COOLING SYSTEM
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Townhouse
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $140 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Paved off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; 2 stories; Approximately 900 above-grade finished area; Subdivision: Knoll Wood
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer; Washer; Laundry closet on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-303/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 475 students, 90% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $155k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,400
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8108 Timberlake Rd #128	0.05mi	2/1.5	864 (-4%)	4mo	$139,900	$162	88
8022 Timberlake Rd #20	0.00mi	2/1.5	900 (0%)	16mo	$155,000	$172	87
8022 Timberlake Rd #22	0.00mi	2/1.5	900 (0%)	20mo	$140,000	$156	84
8108 Timberlake Rd #147	0.05mi	2/1.5	864 (-4%)	14mo	$159,000	$184	79
8108 Timberlake Rd #102	0.05mi	2/1.5	864 (-4%)	19mo	$152,000	$176	75
8108 Timberlake	0.06mi	2/1.5	864 (-4%)	20mo	$90,000	$104	74
100 Capstone Dr #106	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,027 (+14%)	3mo	$200,000	$195	48
100 Capstone Dr #308	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,027 (+14%)	11mo	$215,000	$209	41
205 Capital St #203	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,027 (+14%)	15mo	$199,000	$194	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-23,711
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,888
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,026/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $150,446

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $19	+0% $-25	+5% $-69	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-79	+0% $-25	+5% $29	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $53	-0.5pp $14	base $-25	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,349	$1.18	15d	20	0.51mi
1229 Wood Rd Unit C Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.52mi
1229 Wood Rd Unit B Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.52mi
100 Capstone Dr #303 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,250	$2.19	45d	1	0.54mi
105 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,149	$1.15	15d	14	0.54mi
302 Capstone Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	45d	1	0.54mi
121 Colonnade St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.71mi
120 Clubhouse Dr Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	15d	1	0.94mi
111 Northwynd Cir Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,175	$1.12	15d	3	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingsnow removalexterior maint.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $154,900 Active
2. 2019-03-29
   soldstatus $88,900
3. 2019-03-28
   soldstatus $88,900 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Great townhouse in Knollwood, right off Timberlake! Main level washer/dryer. Monthly association dues cover exterior maintenance, lawn care, trash, water and snow removal.

4. 2019-02-27
   listed $88,900 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Great townhouse in Knollwood, right off Timberlake! Main level washer/dryer. Monthly association dues cover exterior maintenance, lawn care, trash, water and snow removal.

5. 2018-05-31
   listed $88,900
6. 2014-02-27
   soldstatus $75,000
7. 2014-02-27
   soldstatus $75,000
8. 2013-07-23
   listed $75,000
9. 2008-07-22
   soldstatus $87,900
10. 2006-06-28
    soldstatus $68,500
11. 2006-03-14
    soldstatus $607,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,026 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$244/yr (+$20/mo · 23.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,026
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$2,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$701
• After-tax cash flow: $398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-74.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $154,900 LMLS
• 2019-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $88,900 Public Records
• 2019-03-28 Sold (MLS) $88,900 LMLS
• 2019-02-27 Listed $88,900 LMLS
• 2018-05-31 Listed $88,900 LMLS
• 2014-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-27 Sold (MLS) $75,000 LMLS
• 2013-07-23 Listed $75,000 LMLS
• 2008-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $87,900 Public Records
• 2006-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 2006-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $607,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,026 · +17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.