150 Higgs Rd

Caneyville, KY 42721

$144,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,149/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $45/mo
• Annual: $535/yr
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.33%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $40,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($535/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Grayson County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #84 of 165 in KY (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caneyville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 390 students, 71% FRL); Grayson County Middle School (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #143 of 217 statewide, top 67%, 839 students, 63% FRL); Grayson County High School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #118 of 254 statewide, top 47%, 1,252 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $144k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.1% in Caneyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.