441 Red Blanket Rd

Prospect, OR 97536

$230,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,297 sqft · Built 1955 · Other · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,396/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-239/mo
• Annual: $-2,868/yr
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (39.3% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-10 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#346 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Prospect SD 59 (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #168 of 183 in OR (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.