441 Red Blanket Rd · Prospect, OR 97536

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,297 sqft · Other · 39 Days on market

Built 1955 3.00 ac lot $177/sqft · 22% below area Est $294k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#346 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Prospect SD 59 (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #168 of 183 in OR (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-10 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,581 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,718
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -21.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-22,132
• Equity at exit: $66,733

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-9,290
• Equity at exit: $80,175

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97536

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,396 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $477/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $187,774

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-174	+0% $-239	+5% $-566	+10% $-646
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-294	+0% $-239	+5% $-184	+10% $-129
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-181	base $-239	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

2. 2026-03-25
   status Active 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

3. 2026-03-12
   price $230,000 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

4. 2026-01-05
   price $250,000 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

5. 2025-11-27
   status Active 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

6. 2025-09-02
   historical 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

7. 2025-09-02
   price $257,000 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

8. 2025-09-02
   historical 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

9. 2025-09-02
   historical 421-char remark

   Show marketing remark (421 chars)

   3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

10. 2025-08-29
    listed $250,000 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , nice kitchen, rich wood cabinets, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220, storage building, garden area or dog run. RV or boat awning, , storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree.

11. 2005-09-09
    soldstatus $210,000 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , updated kitchen in 98, new cabinets, countertops, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220 and Grizzly dust collection system, insulated craft/office room with storage, garden area or dog run, equip. storage building, 2 fabric garages with motion sensor lights, storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree. Front & back lawns on timers.

12. 2005-07-05
    listed $214,900 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    3Bdr/1Bth on 3 beautiful flat acres. 1297 SF. , updated kitchen in 98, new cabinets, countertops, vinyl floor, double pane windows, garden window, laundry room, ceiling fans, water filter in kitchen, bathroom and at pump, good well per seller, wood stove, large shop with 220 and Grizzly dust collection system, insulated craft/office room with storage, garden area or dog run, equip. storage building, 2 fabric garages with motion sensor lights, storage with room for small boat, lots of sugar pine, cedar Douglas fir trees, and an apple tree. Front & back lawns on timers.

13. 1993-10-26
    soldstatus $62,000
14. 1989-09-22
    soldstatus $49,900
15. 1988-04-06
    soldstatus $5,390
16. 1981-05-23
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $477 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,231 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,754/yr (+$146/mo · 367.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$477
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,340
• − Management: −$1,340
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$7,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,712
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prospect SD 59
• NCES district ID: 4110200
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,573
• Composite: 26.04/100
• National rank: #12739
• State rank: #168 of 183 in OR

Livability — Prospect

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #25082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prospect, OR
• Population (ZIP): 1,230

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.00%
• Current HPI: 246.1249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+411.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $230,000 MLSCO
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $250,000 MLSCO
• 2025-11-27 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2025-09-02 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-09-02 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-09-02 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $257,000 MLSCO
• 2025-08-29 Listed $250,000 MLSCO
• 2005-09-09 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MLSCO
• 2005-07-05 Listed $214,900 MLSCO
• 1993-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1989-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1988-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $5,390 Public Records
• 1981-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $477 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.