29720 Jeans Rd #55

Elmira, OR 97487

$235,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $274/mo
• Annual: $3,288/yr
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (8.6% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fern Ridge SD 28J (rural): math 22% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 58 in OR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elmira Elementary School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #218 of 412 statewide, top 58%, 286 students, 37% FRL); Fern Ridge Middle School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #78 of 128 statewide, top 63%, 291 students, 42% FRL); Elmira High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 418 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $235k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.