29720 Jeans Rd #55 · Elmira, OR 97487

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1993

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MFG HOME ONLY-NO LAND-NEED MOTOR VEH LIC TO SELL. VAULTED CEILIN FORMAL DINING ROOM. SKYLIGHT. OAK CABINETS. UTIL RM. WHOLD HOUSE FILTER. DBL LOT THAT BACKS UP TO FERN RIDGE. DBL CAR GAR. 16X28 BOAT PAD. 10X38 SHED & 10X16 DECK OVERLOOKING LAKE. FENC

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flexible layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• VIEWS OF FERN RIDGE LAKE
• SNOW-CAPPED SISTERS MOUNTAINS
• LAKE VIEWS FROM MULTIPLE ROOMS
• SPACIOUS COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit dimensions approximately 67' x 27'; Main level area approximately 1,809 (RLID)
• Financial info: Lot rent $550 monthly (leased land)
• HOA & community: Pet restrictions — check with office; Located in Fern Ridge Shores park (not a senior community)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway and off-street parking; Detached oversized 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric water heater (tank); Electric fuel; Community water; Community sewer with septic tank option; Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (resale); Single-level living (main level layout); View facing lake and mountains
• Construction: Built in 1993; Lap siding exterior; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Manufacturer: Golden West
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Porch; RV/boat storage; Lake and mountain views; Leased, level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cook island; Butler's pantry; Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Instant hot water
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with suite, walk-in closet, double sinks and walk-in shower; Second bedroom with double closet; Third bedroom with French doors and vaulted ceiling
• Flooring: Laminate flooring in kitchen/dining areas; Wall-to-wall carpet in bedrooms and other rooms; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning (heat pump)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Laundry area; Bay window; Wall-to-wall carpet; Vinyl flooring; Laminate flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fern Ridge SD 28J (rural): math 22% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 58 in OR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elmira Elementary School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #218 of 412 statewide, top 58%, 286 students, 37% FRL); Fern Ridge Middle School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #78 of 128 statewide, top 63%, 291 students, 42% FRL); Elmira High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 418 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $235k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $214,823 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-20,722
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,054
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97487

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,114/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,801

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $340	+0% $274	+5% $207	+10% $141
Rent	-10% $104	-5% $189	+0% $274	+5% $359	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $334	base $274	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $235,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $235,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $235,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $235,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-05
    listed $235,000 Active 731-char remark
12. 2001-10-04
    soldstatus $64,900 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    MFG HOME ONLY-NO LAND-NEED MOTOR VEH LIC TO SELL. VAULTED CEILIN FORMAL DINING ROOM. SKYLIGHT. OAK CABINETS. UTIL RM. WHOLD HOUSE FILTER. DBL LOT THAT BACKS UP TO FERN RIDGE. DBL CAR GAR. 16X28 BOAT PAD. 10X38 SHED & 10X16 DECK OVERLOOKING LAKE. FENC

13. 2001-05-30
    listed $64,900 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    MFG HOME ONLY-NO LAND-NEED MOTOR VEH LIC TO SELL. VAULTED CEILIN FORMAL DINING ROOM. SKYLIGHT. OAK CABINETS. UTIL RM. WHOLD HOUSE FILTER. DBL LOT THAT BACKS UP TO FERN RIDGE. DBL CAR GAR. 16X28 BOAT PAD. 10X38 SHED & 10X16 DECK OVERLOOKING LAKE. FENC

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,114 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,165/yr (+$97/mo · 104.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,114
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$152
• After-tax cash flow: $3,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fern Ridge SD 28J
• NCES district ID: 4104950
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,687
• Composite: 28.67/100
• National rank: #6697
• State rank: #29 of 58 in OR

Livability — Elmira

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,546

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.87%
• Current HPI: 293.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+262.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $235,000 RMLS
• 2001-10-04 Sold (MLS) $64,900 RMLS
• 2001-05-30 Listed $64,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,114 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.