16548 Kenneth Dr

Excelsior Estates, MO 64062

$25,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $609/mo
• Annual: $7,308/yr
• Cap rate: 35.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 104.40%
• DSCR: 5.65
• 1% rule: 3.96%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#881 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Excelsior Springs 40 (town): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #225 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cornerstone Elementary (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #592 of 1,115 statewide, top 54%, 476 students, 47% FRL); Excelsior Springs Middle (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #306 of 391 statewide, top 80%, 576 students, 51% FRL); Excelsior Springs High (math 12% / reading 62%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 787 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.