16548 Kenneth Dr · Excelsior Estates, MO 64062

$25,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1984 ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice level lot with 14x60 mobile that sits on its own lot. See pictures for condition. Sold in present condition. With some work this will make a nice place to call home. And cheaper than rent. .

Key facts

• Built 1984
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#881 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Excelsior Springs 40 (town): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #225 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cornerstone Elementary (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #592 of 1,115 statewide, top 54%, 476 students, 47% FRL); Excelsior Springs Middle (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #306 of 391 statewide, top 80%, 576 students, 51% FRL); Excelsior Springs High (math 12% / reading 62%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 787 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 104.40%
• DSCR: 5.65
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $34,750
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.47×
• Total profit: $80,266
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64062

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $384/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $220

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $623	-5% $616	+0% $609	+5% $602	+10% $595
Rent	-10% $531	-5% $570	+0% $609	+5% $648	+10% $687
Rate	-1.0pp $622	-0.5pp $615	base $609	+0.5pp $602	+1.0pp $596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $25,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $25,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $25,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-05-28
    listed $25,000 Active
12. 2025-03-07
    soldstatus Closed 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Nice level lot with 14x60 mobile that sits on its own lot. See pictures for condition. Sold in present condition. With some work this will make a nice place to call home. And cheaper than rent. .

13. 2025-02-03
    status Pending 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Nice level lot with 14x60 mobile that sits on its own lot. See pictures for condition. Sold in present condition. With some work this will make a nice place to call home. And cheaper than rent. .

14. 2024-07-26
    listed $50,000 Active 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Nice level lot with 14x60 mobile that sits on its own lot. See pictures for condition. Sold in present condition. With some work this will make a nice place to call home. And cheaper than rent. .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $384 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $384 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$384
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$951
• − Management: −$951
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $7,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,763
• After-tax cash flow: $5,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Excelsior Springs 40
• NCES district ID: 2911650
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,747
• Composite: 29.32/100
• National rank: #6548
• State rank: #225 of 324 in MO

Livability — Excelsior Estates

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #881
• US rank: #25338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Excelsior Estates, MO
• Population (ZIP): 6,752

Population outlook (Ray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,420 people
• By 2030: 20,507 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 18,550 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 16,516 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 12,899 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 10,413 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.1% · R 73.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.03%
• Current HPI: 323.5321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $25,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-03-07 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-03 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-26 Listed $50,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $384 · -7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.