1500 NE Gabriela Ct #16

Salem, OR 97301

$107,999B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 166 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,779/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $711/mo
• Annual: $8,537/yr
• Cap rate: 14.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.23%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $30,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $746 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swegle Elementary School (520 students, 74% FRL); Waldo Middle School (1,166 students, 73% FRL); Mckay High School (2,311 students, 102% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 53% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $108k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.