1500 NE Gabriela Ct #16 · Salem, OR 97301

$107,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Manufactured public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1990 $82/sqft · 9% above area Est $101k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990
• Listed 166 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $746 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $108k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $95,039 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.23%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,778
• List price: $107,999
• Delta: 7.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 NE Gabriela Ct #16	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+2%)	1mo	$98,000	$73	91
1500 Gabriela Ct #20	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (0%)	5mo	$132,000	$100	90
4915 NE Swegle Rd #76	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+3%)	5mo	$51,500	$38	79
4915 Swegle Rd #81	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	1mo	$29,900	$24	79
4915 Swegle Rd NE #3	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-3%)	4mo	$57,000	$44	76
4915 Swegle Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-3%)	4mo	$57,000	$44	76
1932 Cottontail Ct NE	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-2%)	3mo	$349,900	$270	69
4915 Swegle Rd NE #15	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-13%)	2mo	$57,500	$50	61
4759 Deepwood Loop NE	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	5mo	$295,000	$205	58
663 Royalty Cir NE	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+6%)	4mo	$164,900	$117	58
4998 Wind Stone Way NE #32	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+14%)	5mo	$134,100	$89	50
925 New Haven Dr NE	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+14%)	3mo	$450,000	$298	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $22,590
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $57,844
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97301

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $992/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $879

Max offer price $107,999

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $773	-5% $742	+0% $711	+5% $681	+10% $650
Rent	-10% $571	-5% $641	+0% $711	+5% $782	+10% $852
Rate	-1.0pp $766	-0.5pp $739	base $711	+0.5pp $683	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1973 45th Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,360	$1.30	15d	2	0.67mi
4768 El Cedro Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,895	$1.41	45d	1	0.79mi
4200 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,445	$1.64	24d	1	0.86mi
434 Greencrest St NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1637	$3,900	$2.38	24d	1	0.87mi
4098 Market St NE Unit MT21 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	24d	1	0.89mi
4154 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,375	$1.71	15d	6	0.97mi
4359 Rodeo Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,245	$1.92	22d	1	1.07mi
4889 Saunter Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1186	$1,925	$1.62	45d	1	1.11mi
4833 Thyme Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,545	$1.51	15d	1	1.12mi
3910-3930 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,845	$1.42	15d	6	1.17mi
102 Greencrest St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,918	$2.10	15d	25	1.20mi
3695 D St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,650	$1.59	45d	3	1.26mi
435 Fountain Valley Way NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	939	$1,559	$1.66	22d	5	1.27mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 35 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	45d	1	1.32mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	771	$1,350	$1.75	15d	11	1.32mi
4252 Ash Grove Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,100	$1.55	15d	1	1.35mi
4824 Falcon Ct NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1246	$1,995	$1.60	24d	1	1.36mi
2489 Coral Ave NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	817	$1,301	$1.59	15d	11	1.38mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 145 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1207	$1,595	$1.32	15d	1	1.39mi
430 Brittany Way NE Unit 369-421 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	920	$1,400	$1.52	45d	1	1.42mi
124 Stafford Ln NE Unit 124-203 Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,595	$1.52	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

2. 2026-04-22
   price $107,999 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

3. 2026-04-08
   price $109,999 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

4. 2026-03-27
   price $111,999 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

5. 2026-03-16
   price $113,999 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

6. 2026-03-05
   price $116,999 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

7. 2026-02-17
   price $119,999 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

8. 2026-01-21
   price $122,999 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

9. 2025-12-04
   listed $124,999 Active 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Remodeled home in Royal Oaks Estates, a 55+ community with $750 space rent. Home has a brand new roof, front deck, carpet, luxury vinyl plank, water tank, stainless steel fridge, new master bath shower, interior and exterior paint. Home has a partially fenced in rear yard that abuts up to the park. A quiet and secluded community.

10. 1993-10-25
    soldstatus $49,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$55/yr (+$5/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$992
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $7,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,730
• After-tax cash flow: $6,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 57,574
• Household income: $60,422
• Rent vs Own: 57.2% rent · 42.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3089.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -548.17%
• Current HPI: 335.8199
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.70%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+116.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $107,999 RMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $109,999 RMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $111,999 RMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $113,999 RMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $116,999 RMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $119,999 RMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $122,999 RMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $124,999 RMLS
• 1993-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $49,995 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $992 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.