18354 Walnut Ave

Warm Springs, CA 92532

$250,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · Built 1961 · Manufactured · Active · 328 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,513/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $449/mo
• Annual: $5,382/yr
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.69%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,259 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 118 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $250k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.