18354 Walnut Ave · Warm Springs, CA 92532

$250,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · Manufactured public records · 328 Days on market

Built 1961 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home on a lot with its own meters for water, gas, electric and its own septic tank. large backyard property. Older well kept mobile home. Endless possibilities on the property. Nice paved street, very close to the 15th fwy. Close to department stores. There are not many lots with its mobile home and utilities ready lo live in it in the area for this price!!!

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 328 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,259 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 118 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $250k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.69%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.35% appreciation · 0.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $132,005
• Equity at exit: $195,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $352,304
• Equity at exit: $394,621

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92532

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,457/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,945

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 328 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 327 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 326 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 325 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 323 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 322 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 319 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 318 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 317 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 314 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 313 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 312 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 311 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 310 DOM
15. 2025-07-25
    listed $250,000 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Mobile home on a lot with its own meters for water, gas, electric and its own septic tank. large backyard property. Older well kept mobile home. Endless possibilities on the property. Nice paved street, very close to the 15th fwy. Close to department stores. There are not many lots with its mobile home and utilities ready lo live in it in the area for this price!!!

16. 2025-02-16
    historical
17. 2024-08-16
    listed $240,000 Active
18. 2024-04-24
    status Active
19. 2024-03-18
    listed $250,000 Active
20. 2020-07-29
    soldstatus $126,000 Closed Sale
21. 2020-07-29
    soldstatus $126,000
22. 2020-07-09
    status Pending Sale
23. 2020-06-04
    price $130,000
24. 2020-05-20
    status Active
25. 2020-05-18
    price $135,900
26. 2020-05-18
    historical Hold Do Not Show
27. 2020-05-16
    status Active
28. 2020-04-02
    historical Hold Do Not Show
29. 2020-02-04
    price $132,000
30. 2020-01-29
    price $137,000
31. 2020-01-20
    price $140,000
32. 2019-11-28
    price $145,000
33. 2019-11-19
    listed $140,000 Active
34. 2017-04-12
    soldstatus $58,000 Closed Sale
35. 2017-04-11
    soldstatus $58,000
36. 2017-02-22
    status Pending Sale
37. 2017-01-26
    status Active
38. 2017-01-06
    status Pending Sale
39. 2016-12-14
    listed $60,000 Active
40. 1981-06-01
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,457 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,900 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 30.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,457
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $1,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$323
• After-tax cash flow: $5,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Warm Springs

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1259
• US rank: #26380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Springs, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,055
• Household income: $122,312
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Asian 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 24% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.35%
• Current HPI: 315.9846
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1370.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-25 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listed $240,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-03-18 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2020-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-29 Sold (MLS) $126,000 CRMLS
• 2020-07-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-06-04 Price Changed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2020-05-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2020-05-18 Price Changed $135,900 CRMLS
• 2020-05-18 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2020-05-16 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2020-04-02 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2020-02-04 Price Changed $132,000 CRMLS
• 2020-01-29 Price Changed $137,000 CRMLS
• 2020-01-20 Price Changed $140,000 CRMLS
• 2019-11-28 Price Changed $145,000 CRMLS
• 2019-11-19 Listed $140,000 CRMLS
• 2017-04-12 Sold (MLS) $58,000 CRMLS
• 2017-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-01-26 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2017-01-06 Pending — CRMLS
• 2016-12-14 Listed $60,000 CRMLS
• 1981-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,457 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.