28 James Ct

Winchester, MO 63021

$275,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,036 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $11/mo
• Annual: $131/yr
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($131/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (17.2% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#74 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ballwin Elem. (math 45% / reading 57%, grade C-, #273 of 1,115 statewide, top 25%, 434 students, 18% FRL); Marquette Sr. High (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B, #17 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 2,155 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $275k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.