28 James Ct · Winchester, MO 63021

$275,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1968 7,501 sqft lot Est $267k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SUBJECT TO SHORT SALE APPROVAL. This split-level has been loved and well-maintained. Welcome to a great opportunity to own a home at this great value! Hardwood floors are featured on the main level. The LR/DR combo off the kitchen is perfect for entertaining. The composite deck is accessed right off the kitchen, overlooking the level, fenced-in backyard. The main bathroom on the first floor is nicely updated with a newer vanity, lighting, and more. Ceiling fans in bedrooms have been added. The lower level offers a recreation room, another bath plus a workout area. The seller has made numerous improvements since ownership, such as the following: Trane HVAC 2018; 200Amp Panel box 2025; Hot wa

Key facts

• 7,501 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller may consider concessions
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (Ameren); Natural gas connected; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Multi/split level
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Chain link fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement with concrete floor, bathroom and storage space; Simulated wood flooring; Ceiling fans; Built-in gas range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility / storage space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($131/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#74 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ballwin Elem. (math 45% / reading 57%, grade C-, #273 of 1,115 statewide, top 25%, 434 students, 18% FRL); Marquette Sr. High (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B, #17 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 2,155 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $275k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,659 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
429 Fairview Ct	0.11mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,008 (-3%)	2mo	$250,000	$248	84
408 Saint Lawrence Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,040 (+0%)	2mo	$249,900	$240	71
236 Ballwin Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+1%)	4mo	$245,000	$233	70
73 Hillcrest Blvd	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	980 (-5%)	8mo	$239,500	$244	68
313 Saint Lawrence Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	988 (-5%)	2mo	$255,000	$258	66
237 Chamberlin Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-4%)	8mo	$245,000	$245	62
218 Robin Hill Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	924 (-11%)	1mo	$249,900	$270	62
212 Lakeside Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	950 (-8%)	2mo	$245,000	$258	60
407 Tulsa Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,082 (+4%)	3mo	$324,900	$300	58
611 Sulphur Spring Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-4%)	8mo	$265,000	$265	51
308 Spring Meadows Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,078 (+4%)	7mo	$265,000	$246	46
408 Ballwin Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	948 (-8%)	10mo	$279,900	$295	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-46,303
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-49,216
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63021

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,770/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,263

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
284 Ramsey Ln Ballwin, MO	4.0	1.0	1296	$2,300	$1.77	14d	1	0.69mi
302 Brightsand Ct Manchester, MO	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,000	$1.60	1d	1	0.71mi
608 Connie Ln Manchester, MO	3.0	1.5	1189	$1,995	$1.68	7d	1	0.80mi
170 Steamboat Ln Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1177	$2,302	$1.95	1d	10	1.22mi
455 Down Hill Dr Ballwin, MO	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,926	$1.76	1d	1	1.31mi
424 Harvest Hill Ct Ballwin, MO	4.0	3.0	1307	$2,880	$2.20	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
9. 2026-04-16
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2026-04-10
    listed $275,000 Active
11. 2026-04-09
    historical $275,000
12. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus $180,000
13. 2017-05-25
    soldstatus Closed
14. 2017-04-04
    status Pending
15. 2017-03-28
    listed $190,000 Active
16. 2009-09-11
    soldstatus $132,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,770
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $1,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwood R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2926850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $98,721
• Composite: 53.61/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #9 of 324 in MO

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #5099

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 91,586
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 55,666
• Household income: $120,177
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 932.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.71%
• Current HPI: 221.4498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+107.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $275,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Coming Soon $275,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-25 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-04 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-28 Listed $190,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $132,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,770 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.