540 Homestead Ln

Hardinsburg, KY 40140

$81,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,545 sqft · Built 2009 · Manufactured · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,245/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $424/mo
• Annual: $5,087/yr
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.43%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $22,680

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $81k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($560 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#250 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckinridge County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #51 of 165 in KY (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Breckinridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Breckinridge County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $74k (48%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 2.4% in Hardinsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.