540 Homestead Ln · Hardinsburg, KY 40140

$81,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,545 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2009 1.68 ac lot ↓ 52% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

REDUCED ! Come check out this 3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath Home sitting on approximately 1.68 beautiful acres in Garfield, KY. Home is approximately 20 minutes from Rough River. Home features a Living Room, Kitchen, Dining Area, a Primary Bedroom and Bath, plus 2 other Bedrooms and another Full Bath. Outside is perfect for entertaining - there is a deck plus a large covered patio to enjoy! Stop in today and see this property before it is SOLD!

Key facts

• Deck
• Large covered patio
• 1.68 acre lot

Tags

• DECK
• LARGE COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane
• Home design: Residential property; One-story; Built in 2009; Other architectural style
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Metal roof; Built in 2009
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 1.68 acres; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, including a primary full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Three closets; No basement; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $81k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 2.4% in Hardinsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#250 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckinridge County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #51 of 165 in KY (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Breckinridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($560 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Breckinridge County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $74k (48%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,785 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.43%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,935
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 Foggy Bottom Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	22mo	$239,900	$143	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $39,235
• Equity at exit: $39,040

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $98,900
• Equity at exit: $62,286

Cash invested: $22,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40140

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$101 /mo · $1,215/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $709

Max offer price $81,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,250
• Closing costs: $2,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $81,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $81,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $81,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $81,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $81,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $81,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $81,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $81,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $81,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-21
    price $81,000
11. 2026-05-10
    historical
12. 2026-04-16
    price $90,000
13. 2026-03-17
    price $100,000
14. 2026-02-27
    price $125,000
15. 2026-02-10
    listed $90,000 Active
16. 2026-02-10
    listed $155,000 Active
17. 2024-04-17
    historical
18. 2024-02-05
    price $159,000
19. 2024-02-05
    price $159,000
20. 2024-01-16
    listed $169,000 Active
21. 2024-01-15
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,537
• − Property taxes: −$1,215
• − Insurance: −$405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$2,356
• Taxable income: $4,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$969
• After-tax cash flow: $4,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckinridge County
• NCES district ID: 2100720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,042
• Composite: 31.2/100
• National rank: #6041
• State rank: #51 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hardinsburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #12568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 699

Population outlook (Breckinridge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,487 people
• By 2030: 18,994 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 17,825 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 16,640 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 14,155 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 11,696 · -40.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Breckinridge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.3% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 256.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-52.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $81,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-10 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $90,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $100,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $155,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $90,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-04-17 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-05 Price Changed $159,000 HKARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Price Changed $159,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-01-16 Listed $169,000 HKARMLS
• 2024-01-15 Listed $169,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $110 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.