191 Village Cir W

Manorville, NY 11949

$139,999D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Built 1986 · Other · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,562/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$1,773
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-584/mo
• Annual: $-7,013/yr
• Cap rate: 1.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.89%
• DSCR: 0.20
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-584 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $37k (73.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $37k (73.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#609 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Eastport-South Manor CSD (suburban): math 62% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #147 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Eastport Elementary School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 348 students, 0% FRL); Eastport-South Manor Junior Senior High School (math 68% / reading 61%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,530 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 69% of rent.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 74% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.