191 Village Cir W · Manorville, NY 11949

$139,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Other public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1986 4,203 sqft lot $136/sqft · 36% below area Est $219k · 36% under $1773/mo HOA · 69% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.9/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this comfortable 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled within the exclusive, over-55 private gated community of Greenwood Village in Manorville. Designed for easy living, this residence offers an open-concept living and dining area perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The spacious kitchen provides ample room for cooking and casual dining, and sliding glass doors open to a covered deck and private yard. The protected side porch offers a peaceful outdoor retreat in any weather. A direct interior entry from the attached garage adds everyday convenience, and an in-unit washer and dryer make home life simpler. The primary suite features a fully renovated en-suite bathroom with modern finishes. A second bedroom and full bath provide flexible space for guests or a home office. This pet-friendly community offers resort like amenities with an in ground pool, clubhouse, fitness center, shuffle board, tennis, billiards, game room, wood workshop, clubs and activities for all and bus trips to local shopping. Cash sales only in Greenwood Village.

Key facts

• Protected side porch
• Clubhouse
• In ground pool

Tags

• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COVERED DECK AND YARD
• PROTECTED SIDE PORCH
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• IN GROUND POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-584 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $37k (73.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (73.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#609 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Eastport-South Manor CSD (suburban): math 62% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #147 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Eastport Elementary School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 348 students, 0% FRL); Eastport-South Manor Junior Senior High School (math 68% / reading 61%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,530 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 69% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,760 (73.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 74% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 1.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.89%
• DSCR: 0.20
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,783
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: -36.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-58,860
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -88.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.42×
• Total profit: $-94,928
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11949

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,562 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $518/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$1,773
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,302

Max offer price $36,760

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-505	-5% $-545	+0% $-584	+5% $-624	+10% $-664
Rent	-10% $-787	-5% $-686	+0% $-584	+5% $-483	+10% $-382
Rate	-1.0pp $-514	-0.5pp $-549	base $-584	+0.5pp $-621	+1.0pp $-658

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1b Country Club Dr Manorville, NY	1.0	1.0	560	$2,463	$4.40	0d	35	1.18mi
201 Jerusalem Hollow Rd Manorville, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1485	$3,445	$2.32	0d	11	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,773 · $21,276/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,999 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,999 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,999 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    listed $139,999 Active 1058-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

    Welcome to this comfortable 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled within the exclusive, over-55 private gated community of Greenwood Village in Manorville. Designed for easy living, this residence offers an open-concept living and dining area perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The spacious kitchen provides ample room for cooking and casual dining, and sliding glass doors open to a covered deck and private yard. The protected side porch offers a peaceful outdoor retreat in any weather. A direct interior entry from the attached garage adds everyday convenience, and an in-unit washer and dryer make home life simpler. The primary suite features a fully renovated en-suite bathroom with modern finishes. A second bedroom and full bath provide flexible space for guests or a home office. This pet-friendly community offers resort like amenities with an in ground pool, clubhouse, fitness center, shuffle board, tennis, billiards, game room, wood workshop, clubs and activities for all and bus trips to local shopping. Cash sales only in Greenwood Village.

17. 2006-01-31
    soldstatus $158,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $518 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,442 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$924/yr (+$77/mo · 178.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$518
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,460
• − Management: −$2,460
• − HOA: −$21,276
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$8,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,059
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastport-South Manor CSD
• NCES district ID: 3600125
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $91,204
• Composite: 59.55/100
• National rank: #918
• State rank: #147 of 590 in NY

Livability — Manorville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #609
• US rank: #10990

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manorville, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 14,563
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,563
• Household income: $138,864
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.29%
• Current HPI: 385.0598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $139,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $518 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.