435-460 Laura Dr

Doyle, CA 96109

$99,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $955/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $132/mo
• Annual: $1,589/yr
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (3.6% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#672 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Sage Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,169 of 1,400 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Primary (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,571 statewide, top 80%, 46 students, 85% FRL); Fort Sage Middle (math 10% / reading 24%, 14 students, 64% FRL); Herlong High (math 24%, 41 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 54% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $99k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.