22 Fir Rd

Ocean Acres, NJ 08050

$244,999D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,214 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$220
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-406/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-406/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (2.9% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (2.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southern Regional School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #251 of 472 in NJ (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Acres Elementary School (665 students, 21% FRL); Southern Regional Middle School (math 21% / reading 53%, grade F, #221 of 431 statewide, top 52%, 905 students, 22% FRL); Southern Regional High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #217 of 399 statewide, top 57%, 1,845 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.