7074 Wildwood Cir Apt 165

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40291

$148,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,639/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$328
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-118/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $41,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-118/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (1.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $146k (1.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fern Creek Elementary (math 11% / reading 27%, grade F, #599 of 676 statewide, top 89%, 712 students, 66% FRL); Newburg Middle (math 14% / reading 36%, grade F, #184 of 217 statewide, top 87%, 941 students, 64% FRL); Fern Creek High (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #199 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 1,688 students, 60% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.0%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.