7074 Wildwood Cir Apt 165 · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40291

$148,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Condo · 4 Days on market

Built 1979 $328/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable condo is minutes from shopping and entertainment! 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Cute balcony! At this price, this home won't last long! Call today for your private showing!

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Nice vanities
• In unit washer dryer

Tags

• IN UNIT WASHER DRYER
• NEWER FLOORING
• NEWER PAINT
• FURNACE AND AC REPLACED
• NICE VANITIES
• CABINETS FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-118/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (1.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (1.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fern Creek Elementary (math 11% / reading 27%, grade F, #599 of 676 statewide, top 89%, 712 students, 66% FRL); Newburg Middle (math 14% / reading 36%, grade F, #184 of 217 statewide, top 87%, 941 students, 64% FRL); Fern Creek High (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #199 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 1,688 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.0%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,256 (1.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-15,754
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $25,691
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40291

• Rents YoY: 15.0%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,663/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$328
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $146,256

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $32	+0% $-10	+5% $-52	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-75	+0% $-10	+5% $55	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $28	base $-10	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7008 Wildwood Cir #60 Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,299	$1.04	5d	1	0.16mi
5706 Bannon Crossings Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	25d	1	0.47mi
7025 Bronner Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1050	$1,403	$1.34	13d	9	0.67mi
4313 Norbrook Dr Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	725	$950	$1.31	25d	1	0.89mi
226 Granvil Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	5d	1	0.97mi
6003 Jo Danielle Pl Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	888	$1,250	$1.41	18d	7	1.19mi
7610 Chelsea Gardens Cir Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1220	$2,011	$1.65	4d	21	1.24mi
5312 Poindexter Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,314	$1.59	4d	7	1.26mi
279 Granvil Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,625	$1.27	22d	1	1.29mi
2106 Buechel Bank Rd Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	1000	$1,399	$1.40	5d	7	1.39mi
2041 Shady Grove Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0–2.0	754	$1,435	$1.90	25d	4	1.41mi
6710 Six Mile Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1005	$1,275	$1.27	25d	1	1.47mi
6710 Six Mile Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1005	$1,275	$1.27	16d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $328 · $3,936/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $148,000 Active
3. 2021-01-05
   soldstatus $99,900
4. 2020-12-30
   soldstatus $99,900 Closed 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   This adorable condo is minutes from shopping and entertainment! 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Cute balcony! At this price, this home won't last long! Call today for your private showing!

5. 2020-11-28
   historical Active Under Contract 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   This adorable condo is minutes from shopping and entertainment! 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Cute balcony! At this price, this home won't last long! Call today for your private showing!

6. 2020-11-09
   historical

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   This adorable condo is minutes from shopping and entertainment! 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Cute balcony! At this price, this home won't last long! Call today for your private showing!

7. 2020-11-09
   price $99,900 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   This adorable condo is minutes from shopping and entertainment! 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Cute balcony! At this price, this home won't last long! Call today for your private showing!

8. 2020-10-27
   listed $109,900 Active
9. 2020-10-26
   listed $109,900 Active 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   This adorable condo is minutes from shopping and entertainment! 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Cute balcony! At this price, this home won't last long! Call today for your private showing!

10. 2018-08-23
    soldstatus $92,500
11. 2018-08-17
    soldstatus $92,500 Closed
12. 2018-07-16
    status Pending
13. 2018-06-15
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2018-06-13
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,663 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,663 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$1,663
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − HOA: −$3,936
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable loss: −$2,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$580
• After-tax cash flow: $462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 41,222
• Household income: $81,267
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 790.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -279.15%
• Current HPI: 218.0784
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.96%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+64.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $148,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) $99,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-11-28 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-11-09 Price Changed $99,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-11-09 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-10-27 Listed $109,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-10-26 Listed $109,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2018-08-17 Sold (MLS) $92,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-07-16 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-06-15 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-06-13 Listed $89,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,663 · +45.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.