2819 VT Route 313

Arlington, VT 05250

$150,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 910 sqft · Built 1933 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,294/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $41/mo
• Annual: $493/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($493/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (13.7% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#104 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Fisher School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #113 of 192 statewide, top 62%, 221 students, 33% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.