2819 VT Route 313 · Arlington, VT 05250

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1933 0.50 ac lot $165/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home in the desirable Battenkill River Valley offering beautiful mountain and river views and easy access to outdoor recreation. Set on approximately half an acre, this property provides the perfect balance of privacy and convenience—just minutes to town, shopping, and dining. Key features include a newer roof and furnace, adding value and peace of mind. The home offers a functional layout with abundant natural light, comfortable living spaces, and room to make it your own. This home is being sold in as is condition with contents. Needs updating. Enjoy Vermont living at its best with swimming, fishing, and canoe/kayak access to the Battenkill River just

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Newer furnace
• Newer roof

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• RIVER VIEWS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway
• Utilities: On-site well; Septic system; 100 Amp electric service; Fiber optic and high-speed internet available; Cable and telephone available
• Home design: New Englander style; Existing construction; White exterior; Shingle - Architectural roof; Built in 1933
• Construction: Wood frame construction with wood exterior and wood siding; Partial, walkout basement
• Exterior features: Country setting; Level lot; Mountain views; River frontage / water view (Batten Kill)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on level 1
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on level 1; Bedroom on level 2; Bedroom on level 2
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Partial, walkout basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($493/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#104 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Fisher School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #113 of 192 statewide, top 62%, 221 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,389 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $470,362
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -68.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $84,298
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $246,154
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05250

• Home prices YoY: 11.7%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,583/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $84	+0% $41	+5% $-1	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $-10	+0% $41	+5% $92	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $79	base $41	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $150,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 31 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active with Contract 30 DOM
12. 2026-05-01
    listed $150,000 Active 786-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,583 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,217 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$633/yr (+$53/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥89°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,583
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$494
• After-tax cash flow: $987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #21059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,907

Population outlook (Bennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,407 people
• By 2030: 32,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 29,711 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,638 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 21,318 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 16,086 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bennington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.5) · D 60.0% · R 37.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.4pp · 2024: 22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.5 2020: D+27.3 2016: D+22.1 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+33.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.92%
• Current HPI: 315.5985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $150,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,583 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.