154 Breckenridge Ct

Pearcy, AR 71964

$145,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,002/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-107/mo
• Annual: $-1,289/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $145k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Pearcy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.