154 Breckenridge Ct · Pearcy, AR 71964

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2011 2.08 ac lot $177/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly set up, year round flowing creek, huge yard -beautiful country living! Welcome to 154 Breckenridge Court. Located on a little over 2 acres in Lake Hamilton School District next to Mazarn Creek. This 3 bed 2 bath mobile home is newly set up and has never been lived in by the seller! The bottom half of the property is freshly cleared and leveled, ready to build your forever home or a new shop. Out of city limits, Brand new roof, all electric, septic, Kimsey water, new front porch and back steps and not in a flood zone! You don't want to miss this! AGENTS SEE REMARKS

Key facts

• 2.08 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2011

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Pearcy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $145k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,200 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,158
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -69.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $72,081
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $217,550
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71964

• Home prices YoY: 25.8%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,002 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,138

Max offer price $126,023

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $145,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Freshly set up, year round flowing creek, huge yard -beautiful country living! Welcome to 154 Breckenridge Court. Located on a little over 2 acres in Lake Hamilton School District next to Mazarn Creek. This 3 bed 2 bath mobile home is newly set up and has never been lived in by the seller! The bottom half of the property is freshly cleared and leveled, ready to build your forever home or a new shop. Out of city limits, Brand new roof, all electric, septic, Kimsey water, new front porch and back steps and not in a flood zone! You don't want to miss this! AGENTS SEE REMARKS

19. 2026-05-19
    price $145,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Freshly set up, year round flowing creek, huge yard -beautiful country living! Welcome to 154 Breckenridge Court. Located on a little over 2 acres in Lake Hamilton School District next to Mazarn Creek. This 3 bed 2 bath mobile home is newly set up and has never been lived in by the seller! The bottom half of the property is freshly cleared and leveled, ready to build your forever home or a new shop. Out of city limits, Brand new roof, all electric, septic, Kimsey water, new front porch and back steps and not in a flood zone! You don't want to miss this! AGENTS SEE REMARKS

20. 2026-05-06
    status Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Freshly set up, year round flowing creek, huge yard -beautiful country living! Welcome to 154 Breckenridge Court. Located on a little over 2 acres in Lake Hamilton School District next to Mazarn Creek. This 3 bed 2 bath mobile home is newly set up and has never been lived in by the seller! The bottom half of the property is freshly cleared and leveled, ready to build your forever home or a new shop. Out of city limits, Brand new roof, all electric, septic, Kimsey water, new front porch and back steps and not in a flood zone! You don't want to miss this! AGENTS SEE REMARKS

21. 2026-05-06
    status Back on Market 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Freshly set up, year round flowing creek, huge yard -beautiful country living! Welcome to 154 Breckenridge Court. Located on a little over 2 acres in Lake Hamilton School District next to Mazarn Creek. This 3 bed 2 bath mobile home is newly set up and has never been lived in by the seller! The bottom half of the property is freshly cleared and leveled, ready to build your forever home or a new shop. Out of city limits, Brand new roof, all electric, septic, Kimsey water, new front porch and back steps and not in a flood zone! You don't want to miss this! AGENTS SEE REMARKS

22. 2026-04-22
    status Pending 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Freshly set up, year round flowing creek, huge yard -beautiful country living! Welcome to 154 Breckenridge Court. Located on a little over 2 acres in Lake Hamilton School District next to Mazarn Creek. This 3 bed 2 bath mobile home is newly set up and has never been lived in by the seller! The bottom half of the property is freshly cleared and leveled, ready to build your forever home or a new shop. Out of city limits, Brand new roof, all electric, septic, Kimsey water, new front porch and back steps and not in a flood zone! You don't want to miss this! AGENTS SEE REMARKS

23. 2026-04-22
    status Under Contract 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Freshly set up, year round flowing creek, huge yard -beautiful country living! Welcome to 154 Breckenridge Court. Located on a little over 2 acres in Lake Hamilton School District next to Mazarn Creek. This 3 bed 2 bath mobile home is newly set up and has never been lived in by the seller! The bottom half of the property is freshly cleared and leveled, ready to build your forever home or a new shop. Out of city limits, Brand new roof, all electric, septic, Kimsey water, new front porch and back steps and not in a flood zone! You don't want to miss this! AGENTS SEE REMARKS

24. 2026-04-07
    listed $150,000 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Freshly set up, year round flowing creek, huge yard -beautiful country living! Welcome to 154 Breckenridge Court. Located on a little over 2 acres in Lake Hamilton School District next to Mazarn Creek. This 3 bed 2 bath mobile home is newly set up and has never been lived in by the seller! The bottom half of the property is freshly cleared and leveled, ready to build your forever home or a new shop. Out of city limits, Brand new roof, all electric, septic, Kimsey water, new front porch and back steps and not in a flood zone! You don't want to miss this! AGENTS SEE REMARKS

25. 2026-04-06
    listed $150,000 New Listing 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Freshly set up, year round flowing creek, huge yard -beautiful country living! Welcome to 154 Breckenridge Court. Located on a little over 2 acres in Lake Hamilton School District next to Mazarn Creek. This 3 bed 2 bath mobile home is newly set up and has never been lived in by the seller! The bottom half of the property is freshly cleared and leveled, ready to build your forever home or a new shop. Out of city limits, Brand new roof, all electric, septic, Kimsey water, new front porch and back steps and not in a flood zone! You don't want to miss this! AGENTS SEE REMARKS

26. 2025-03-19
    soldstatus $70,000
27. 2025-03-17
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold
28. 2025-01-24
    listed $70,000
29. 2025-01-24
    historical
30. 2025-01-24
    historical
31. 2024-12-11
    price $139,900
32. 2024-12-10
    price $139,900
33. 2024-11-18
    listed $150,000 New Listing
34. 2001-12-26
    soldstatus $11,000
35. 1998-10-15
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$962
• − Management: −$962
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$937
• After-tax cash flow: $-352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Hamilton School District
• NCES district ID: 0508610
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4834
• State rank: #54 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pearcy

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,891

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 73.91%
• Current HPI: 360.0646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1108.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $145,000 CARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $145,000 HSBOR
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — HSBOR
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HSBOR
• 2026-04-22 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $150,000 HSBOR
• 2026-04-06 Listed $150,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-17 Sold (MLS) $70,000 CARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $70,000 CARMLS
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $139,900 CARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $139,900 HSBOR
• 2024-11-18 Listed $150,000 CARMLS
• 2001-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 1998-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+36.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.