126 Denver Whitworth Rd

Avalon, GA 30538

$75,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 313 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $747/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$157
• Net cashflow: $124/mo
• Annual: $1,483/yr
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.06%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $75k (0.4% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#583 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Stephens County (rural): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #74 of 174 in GA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (567 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 51% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stephens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.