126 Denver Whitworth Rd · Avalon, GA 30538

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 313 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1985 0.95 ac lot $240/sqft · 36% above area Est $148k · 49% under ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous 0.95-acre lot in desirable Stephens County, offering the perfect opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize their dream property. Featuring an open floor plan, the home provides a spacious layout ready for your updates and vision. In addition to the main residence, the property includes a detached outbuilding equipped with a kitchen and already stubbed for a bathroom-ideal for conversion into a guest house, mother-in-law suite, or potential rental income opportunity. Just needs finishing touches to bring it to life. With nearly an acre of land, there's ample space for outdoor living, expansion, or added improvements. Wh

Key facts

• 0.95 acre lot
• Detached outbuilding
• Outdoor living

Tags

• 0.95 ACRE LOT
• DETACHED OUTBUILDING
• EQUIPPED WITH A KITCHEN
• STUBBED FOR A BATHROOM
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.95 acre (public records)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home / Single-family residence; Manufactured house structure; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 1985; Metal roof; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level home; Public records list 840 above-grade finished square feet; Convection oven, Cooktop, Refrigerator; In-hall laundry; Laminate flooring; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $75k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#583 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Stephens County (rural): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #74 of 174 in GA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (567 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 51% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Stephens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.06%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,817
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -43.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $30,523
• Equity at exit: $48,230

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $83,318
• Equity at exit: $88,411

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30538

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$157
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $590

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 New 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 New 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 New 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 New 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 New 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 New 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 New 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 New 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $75,000 New 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,900 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,900 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    status Under Contract 827-char remark
18. 2026-05-04
    historical
19. 2026-04-10
    listed $84,900 New 827-char remark
20. 2026-04-10
    listed $84,900 New
21. 2025-05-30
    soldstatus $70,000
22. 2025-05-14
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed
23. 2025-05-14
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold
24. 2025-05-12
    status Under Contract
25. 2025-05-12
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2025-01-28
    price $95,000
27. 2025-01-28
    price $95,000
28. 2025-01-18
    price $125,000
29. 2025-01-18
    price $125,000
30. 2024-12-30
    listed $135,000 Active
31. 2024-12-30
    listed $135,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $690 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 37.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$717
• − Management: −$717
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $1,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephens County
• NCES district ID: 1304560
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,416
• Composite: 28.42/100
• National rank: #6759
• State rank: #74 of 174 in GA

Livability — Avalon

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #25685

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,204

Population outlook (Stephens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,797 people
• By 2030: 22,785 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 20,653 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 18,745 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 14,780 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 11,079 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Greek 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.4% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+58.7 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+53.7 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.23%
• Current HPI: 373.9848
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-44.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $75,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $82,900 GAMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $84,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $84,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $75,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-14 Sold (MLS) $70,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-14 Sold (MLS) $70,000 FMLS
• 2025-05-12 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-05-12 Contingent — FMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $95,000 GAMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $95,000 FMLS
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $125,000 FMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listed $135,000 GAMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listed $135,000 FMLS

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $501 · +40.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.