12516 Goldens Ave SE

Wiley Ford, WV 21502

$119,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,190/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $170/mo
• Annual: $2,039/yr
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.12%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (0.0% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#192 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: South Penn Elementary (math 9% / reading 13%, grade F, #581 of 860 statewide, top 68%, 523 students, 77% FRL); Washington Middle (math 7% / reading 30%, grade F, #159 of 225 statewide, top 73%, 583 students, 62% FRL); Fort Hill High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 692 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 47% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $119k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.6% in Wiley Ford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.