12516 Goldens Ave SE · Wiley Ford, WV 21502

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1963 0.26 ac lot $90/sqft · 31% below area Est $172k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single-level ranch featuring hardwood floors, a spacious layout, and a generously sized kitchen ready for updates. Stone front exterior, covered porch, side deck, and off-street parking with carport add to the appeal. Ideal for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or make it their own.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.6% in Wiley Ford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#192 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: South Penn Elementary (math 9% / reading 13%, grade F, #581 of 860 statewide, top 68%, 523 students, 77% FRL); Washington Middle (math 7% / reading 30%, grade F, #159 of 225 statewide, top 73%, 583 students, 62% FRL); Fort Hill High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 692 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 47% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $119k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.12%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,920
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -30.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13905 Uhl Hwy SE	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,468 (+11%)	7mo	$200,000	$136	69
12526 Blue Valley Rd SE	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,263 (-4%)	21mo	$150,000	$119	62
14408 Uhl Hwy SE	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,348 (+2%)	14mo	$142,000	$105	57
13701 Uhl Hwy SE	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,134 (-14%)	21mo	$205,000	$181	43
12403 Spruces Ln SE	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (-7%)	8mo	$92,900	$76	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,188
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $40,589
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,157/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $204	+0% $170	+5% $136	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $123	+0% $170	+5% $217	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $200	base $170	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $119,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-04-14
   price $119,000 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Single-level ranch featuring hardwood floors, a spacious layout, and a generously sized kitchen ready for updates. Stone front exterior, covered porch, side deck, and off-street parking with carport add to the appeal. Ideal for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or make it their own.

9. 2026-03-18
   price $129,000 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Single-level ranch featuring hardwood floors, a spacious layout, and a generously sized kitchen ready for updates. Stone front exterior, covered porch, side deck, and off-street parking with carport add to the appeal. Ideal for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or make it their own.

10. 2026-03-02
    listed $135,000 Active 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Single-level ranch featuring hardwood floors, a spacious layout, and a generously sized kitchen ready for updates. Stone front exterior, covered porch, side deck, and off-street parking with carport add to the appeal. Ideal for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or make it their own.

11. 2026-02-27
    price $135,000 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Single-level ranch featuring hardwood floors, a spacious layout, and a generously sized kitchen ready for updates. Stone front exterior, covered porch, side deck, and off-street parking with carport add to the appeal. Ideal for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or make it their own.

12. 2026-02-27
    historical $145,000 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Single-level ranch featuring hardwood floors, a spacious layout, and a generously sized kitchen ready for updates. Stone front exterior, covered porch, side deck, and off-street parking with carport add to the appeal. Ideal for buyers looking to renovate, invest, or make it their own.

13. 1985-08-05
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,157 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,157 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,157
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Wiley Ford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #17247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allegany County
• City population: 419
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $119,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $129,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-27 Coming Soon $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1985-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,157 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.