47 Hunter Ln

Centereach, NY 11720

$475,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$961
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,017
• Net cashflow: $372/mo
• Annual: $4,468/yr
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $475k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $446k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $242k; list at $475k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.