47 Hunter Ln · Centereach, NY 11720

$475,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1957 9,583 sqft lot $259/sqft · 30% below area Est $683k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This split-Level is Located on a very nice block of Centereach, very closed to school, and downtown. Property is occupied and will be sold as is. Bring your tools and make this your next project and or your new home. Current owner has started eviction and new owner to continue if necessary!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $446k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $242k; list at $475k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $446,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $682,721
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -30.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Picket Ln	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,900 (+4%)	12mo	$660,000	$347	79
22 Elwood Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+0%)	16mo	$550,000	$299	66
70 Forest Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,891 (+3%)	5mo	$755,000	$399	63
1 Leonard Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,738 (-5%)	11mo	$615,000	$354	62
22 Morning Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-7%)	12mo	$650,000	$382	56
41 Millford Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-13%)	12mo	$590,000	$369	48
75 Jay Rd	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+9%)	14mo	$695,000	$348	48
22 Kennedy Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (-8%)	3mo	$750,000	$442	46
4 Johnson Ct	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,721 (-6%)	4mo	$465,000	$270	45
3 Eisenhower Rd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (-4%)	14mo	$669,000	$379	42
27 Barbara Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (-12%)	14mo	$620,000	$385	42
9 Irene Ct	0.46mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,582 (-14%)	10mo	$540,000	$341	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-56,301
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-21,922
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11720

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$763 /mo · $9,157/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,003
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,370

Max offer price $475,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $591	-5% $456	+0% $322	+5% $187	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $133	+0% $322	+5% $510	+10% $699
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $443	base $322	+0.5pp $199	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Fairway Dr South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2388	$5,000	$2.09	44d	1	0.91mi
63 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2479	$5,300	$2.14	24d	1	0.95mi
61 Gould Rd Centereach, NY	4.0	3.0	2592	$3,850	$1.49	25d	1	1.02mi
103 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	3.0	4.0	2274	$5,000	$2.20	2d	1	1.11mi
64 Neal Path Centereach, NY	1.0–3.0	2.0	1252	$4,270	$3.41	2d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $475,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $475,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $475,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $475,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $475,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-03-12
   price $475,000 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   This split-Level is Located on a very nice block of Centereach, very closed to school, and downtown. Property is occupied and will be sold as is. Bring your tools and make this your next project and or your new home. Current owner has started eviction and new owner to continue if necessary!

10. 2026-03-11
    listed $455,000 Active 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    This split-Level is Located on a very nice block of Centereach, very closed to school, and downtown. Property is occupied and will be sold as is. Bring your tools and make this your next project and or your new home. Current owner has started eviction and new owner to continue if necessary!

11. 2025-11-18
    historical
12. 2025-10-29
    listed $455,000 Active
13. 2004-02-10
    soldstatus $242,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,157 · $763/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,157 · $763/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$9,157
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,586
• − Management: −$4,586
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$914
• After-tax cash flow: $4,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middle Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619200
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $86,140
• Composite: 52.89/100
• National rank: #1532
• State rank: #217 of 590 in NY

Livability — Centereach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #6174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centereach, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,292
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,292
• Household income: $134,898
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 436.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -633.07%
• Current HPI: 347.7369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+96.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $455,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Listed $455,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,157 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.