35 Ocean Crest Way

Palm Coast, FL 32137-5674

$495,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · Built 2002 · Townhouse · Active · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$891
• HOA: −$1,363
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $-2,254/mo
• Annual: $-27,048/yr
• Cap rate: 0.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.94%
• DSCR: 0.16
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $495k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (65.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (33.6% below list).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (65.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Old Kings Elementary School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 979 students, 52% FRL); Indian Trails Middle School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,518 students, 50% FRL); Matanzas High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,978 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 41% of rent.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $495k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 3.7% in Palm Coast — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.